If aluminum prices and mill lead times are starting to feel impossible to predict, you’re not imagining things—and you’re not the only one. Procurement teams and OEMs are under pressure in 2025, navigating a mix of tariffs, reshoring challenges, and tight mill capacity while trying to keep production on track.
At Basic Metals, we live and breathe aluminum. We talk to mills every day and keep a close eye on the signals that matter—so our customers can make smart moves, not guesses.
In this post, we’ll break down what’s really driving the chaos, what to watch for in the second half of the year, and how you can stay ahead of the curve—even when the market’s anything but steady.
Understanding Aluminum Supply Chain Pressures
With global trade policy in flux, reshoring initiatives reshaping domestic demand, and mill capacity spoken for before metal even cools, strategic buyers need a clear-eyed view of what’s driving market behavior:
Tariffs Impact Sourcing and Pricing
Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to play a disruptive role in aluminum sourcing, shaking up supply chains the world over as the flow of global trade routes shifts. The US’s aluminum tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from other countries, and global trade policies that can change at any moment as negotiations go on drive unpredictable cost increases and complicate sourcing decisions.
Reshoring Creates Demand Spikes
Since the COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted global supply chains, the automotive, electronics, and aerospace industries in particular have been reshoring manufacturing capabilities. However, reshoring can be a double-edged sword for aluminum buyers—while it brings supply chains closer to home, it creates demand surges that domestic mills are often unprepared to handle, leading to bottlenecks that translate directly to price volatility and extended lead times.
Mill Capacity Is Spoken For
If you’re not in automotive or beverage cans, you’re likely at the mercy of the spot market. The US automotive industry and beverage industry are two of the biggest consumers of aluminum. Most aluminum mills have already had a significant portion of their capacity tied up in long-term contracts with customers in these industries—and everybody else has to book what’s left or get in line behind them. Mid-sized buyers must navigate a maze of conversion costs, unreturned calls, and spot market scrambling to secure the aluminum their projects need.
Will new domestic mills relieve pressure on the supply chain?
Over the past ten years, we’ve seen a wave of investment in U.S. aluminum production—from both private capital and the federal government. In March 2024, the federal government invested $500 million into building its first primary aluminum smelter in 45 years. The Department of Defense also awarded $23 million to increase domestic casting production.
But just like reshoring, expanding mill capacity doesn’t happen overnight. Whether it’s a new facility or an expansion, these projects take years—sometimes close to a decade—to get fully up and running.
So while these investments point to a more stable future, they’re unlikely to ease the aluminum market’s volatility anytime soon.
What This Means for Buyers:
Don’t count on new capacity to relieve pressure this year. Instead, work with suppliers who already have trusted domestic sources and flexible inventory options.
US Aluminum Market Outlook for Q3-Q4 2025
From the beginning of 2025 through Q2, the London Metal Exchange has seen aluminum prices per ton trend downward, offset by the Midwest Premium—the regional price of pure aluminum supplied to the Midwest—trending upward. Looking toward the back half of 2025, industry analysts and mill partners are expecting modest aluminum price increases, driven by constrained global supply and continued unpredictability related to trade policy and tariffs. Aluminum Magazine forecasts price increases of 5-7% in the second half of the year.
How to Stay Ahead of the US Aluminum Market
So, in light of current supply chain complications, both international and domestic, what can procurement and plant management professionals do to stay ahead? It’s hard enough to react to the aluminum market’s short-term chaos—so the trick will be to be proactive, not reactive. That means:
- Building flexibility into your purchase orders and planning windows.
- Seeking market intelligence, not just metal—suppliers who can interpret signals from both mills and macroeconomic indicators and give you purchasing advice when you need it.
- Going further than chasing quotes—instead of asking just “what’s your price today?” ask for forecasts and insights into what the price could be tomorrow, a month from now, or six months from now.
At Basic Metals, we talk to mills every day and keep our eyes on trends, not just numbers, so we can provide the proactive guidance you need to stay steady while the waves rock your boat. Our customers enjoy long-term partnership that helps them weather short-term price wars and keep their eyes on the prize.
Reach out to us today and put a competitive edge on your aluminum sourcing strategy:
